Sunday, August 19, 2007

Where should one lay down roots?

The age of forty is an interesting age to say the least. You're older not younger, are about halfway through your expected lifespan, and the kids are nearing independence. The big question I've been chewing over is "Where is the best place to permanently settle?" When you answer the question there is a healthy dose of finality in the conclusion. To some this a good thing, and to others it's frightening. The real question is: Which conclusion satisfies you the most?

We've been on the move for twenty years. Married in '89 and off to Canada, to Hong Kong in '91 and then off to Bangkok in '95 with a few young children in tow. A lifetime of 4 year stints seemed just fine, so in '99 we headed back to Hong Kong with one more youngster and spent a lengthy eight years there. Amazingly (and happily) we produced yet another little one who is fourteen years younger than the eldest. After eight years here we have now chosen to punch the clock, push the button, lower the landing gear, you name it, head back to Canada. Like Gilligan's three hour tour that lasted three years (I thought it was longer, but Wikipedia knows better) we've been spotted by the rescue team and are coming home after a 16 year adventure. Vancouver may be another chapter in an ongoing tale or a very lengthy final chapter and epilogue. We'd like it to be a chapter, but I have a feeling it will be like The Deathly Hallows--800 pages of good fun after many previous shorter books.

I've been wondering if a sense of regret and nostalgia would form, but it hasn't. Many of our good friends are all packing up and going back home, which suggests that Asia in general is becoming less fascinating and exotic than it once was, as well as the likelihood that our friends face the same issues. Schooling, pollution, cost of living, skill gap versus local talent, income opportunities, etc. are all influencers that most families face. I say "families" because singles and couples are generally very flexible and probably enjoy a more active and radical social life than couples with kids. Asia is still highly appealing to younger couples with very young kids because there is just so much to see, and it's easy to take your young kids around. Once the kids are in school you're limited to school holidays for trips and your life become similar to what it would be back home. Obviously I speak from the perspective of an expatriate--Local residents are "at home" and the expat "adventure" is the local's normal day. We've found that if we live much in the same style as we would back in North America, but are burdened with pollution, a high cost of living, etc. well why not just go live there?

So our newest adventure is to see what it's like to have a mortgage and to be gratefully unbeholden to landlords. We give up a lot, but gain a lot as well. And the best thing is that I largely have no sense of regret about leaving which means that I'm honestly looking forward to living back in Canada. We did the adventure and never have to wonder "What if?" That's a blessing to people like us who live to experience, and appreciate what they've seen. Whenever I get a good workout done early in the morning I think that it's one less important thing to worry about during the day, so that I can focus on what is currently happening. At our early age of forty three we can check the "overseas adventure" off the list and move on to whatever needs our attention these days. It's gives me a sense of achievement, and more importantly, a sense of peace that I did something I really wanted to do. Now, I need to Google "how to mow lawn" so ta ta for now.

Friday, August 17, 2007

The iPod and Podcasts are revolutionary

I'm not a news junkie or anything, but I do try to stay up to speed with what's happening. Yahoo! still seems to be the best at gathering what I like and presenting it to me, but I haven't tried hard to make Google work as much. I'm sure it can do everything I want, honestly once you're set up with something that works then why change unless the value is really substantial.

While I like reading a real newspaper, I also like hearing different points of view in a conversational way. I spend a lot of down time while running, excercising, commuting and traveling, and it's during these times that a physical newspaper or magazine doesn't work. Just try reading a newspaper on a subway during rush hour. I've got a daily routine that includes a trip to the PC to plug in my iPod and download the latest podcasts that cover a wide range of topics from the NY Times headline news, politics, comedy and esoterica like "Learn French", "12 Great Byzantine Rulers", and "Great Speeches in History."

What's so handy is that all the content is on your iPod and if you're like me you always have more than you need and it's not a waste to do this. How many books, mags and newspapers are purchased and then discarded partially read if not at all? When I commute in the morning I like the news, so it's NYT headlines for 5 minutes. Because it's a quick commute of 30-40 minutes I don't like a chunky interview and instead opt for a 15-20 minute podcast that I can handle while walking and jostling on public transport. NPR's It's All Politics works for me, as well This American Life. This one in particular is supposedly "the best podcast available" and is usually a story about a unique individual in America with some unusual situation, often paradoxical. I don't know how they find these people quite honestly because none are famous and their stories are typically unreported. The last one I heard for example was about a group of mentally disbled journalists who get people on the street to talk to them. The interviewees would normally give some PC or newsbite answer, but when approached by an obviously mentally challenged yet professional and capable reporter with a microphone, they respond much more insightfully. They perhaps think that their normal content can't be processed by the interviewee so when they tone down the rhetoric what they say comes out quite clear and in a more personable tone.

When I run, which is 30-60 minutes, I forego music for NPR's On Point with Tom Ashbrook. He gets great interviews with interesting people on topics that often are the same as headline news, but with a deep dive from fascinating interviewees. The 60 minutes breezes by very quickly. Yesterday I finished up a show on a British author who has a new book on the angry British, in opposition to the normal perception of British people being reserved. His point is that Brits are reserved because they're trained to not feel, and that latent emotion comes out in humor and during sporting events, and is displayed toward animals and plants rather than family and friends. It was a great interview, and was followed up by an hour on Rupert Murdoch's takeover of Dow Jones. There were opposing views on that, and I changed my mind on Murdoch as a result.

Nighttime is usually NPR's comedy quiz Wait, Wait Don't Tell Me. It's a traveling show with a rotating panel of comedians, authors and commentators who are asked questions about current events in a humorous way. Guests appear each week and because the show is so widely heard, somewhat intellectual and lighthearted, the guest list is always great. Recently on the show was US Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer, Chicago prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald (who took down Conrad Black and Scooter Libby), Ted Koppel and Linda Ronstadt. Another super fave comedy podcast is HBO's Bill Maher show. It's political, uncensored and forthright. Unfortunately it comes on for a few months and then goes off, so I'm looking forward to the next series.

If you also have down time, consider an interesting podcast. It fills the time productively, is portable, and always there when you need it.

Sunday, August 12, 2007

Meltdown coming?

No, I don't think so, but it's certainly a time to: 1)Be careful if you're heavily into any speculative investments e.g. anything in China; or 2) Go after recently clobbered stocks that you recently thought were too pricey. I read the South China Morning Post this moring (Sunday) and saw that a Chinese professor is warning about the huge amount of risk in the Chinese property market given the amount and ease of borrowing in China. Beijing and Shanghai are so expensive right now that middle class households are mortgaged to the teeth, and I would guess that many, many people have taken on investment properties. Since the mainland Chinese have only ever experienced prosperity (I am obviously omitting that lovely period from 1949 to 1980 that was hell and not prosperity) they don't see that a bubble can burst. Here in Hong Kong I've experienced a few serious property and stock market bubbles, and have a strong sense that the local Hong Kongers are much wiser these days. Now mind you, they'll fleece every mainlander with a dollar to spend in Hong Kong, but they'll keep the dollar and use it to grow the economy instead of acting hot stock market tips from grandma and the taxi drivers.

Will the U.S. and global markets tank? I also don't think so. I think they'll soften, but the global economy is still growing, companies are investing and consumers are spending. The July retail numbers in the US were soft though, and that tells me that confidence perhaps is waning. People with paper gains on their home feel good about spending those gains and taking on debt. But now that those gains are going away, well I think most people tighten up their spending and are not so ebullient. It would be nice if the US media and politicians stopped all this nonsense about China and India somehow causing problems for the US. I guess they're easy targets in an election year.

Tuesday, June 12, 2007

Moving

We're moving out of our small house, unwillingly. Rent is going up by 60% and luckily we don't have to downsize by an equal amount, but we're still going to reduce our living space. We added a 4th child a year ago, so when we should be expanding in space we're being forced to go backwards. I feel like a tycoon's soon-to-be ex, complaining about how $50k a month in living expenses is just impossible. But, while $10k a month in rent allows a family of 6 to live well, it's going to be tighter than that to which we are accustomed.

I totally understand the desire to buy a house. A house is a home, and a home is the ultimate in utility. We're looking to move back to Canada or the US, more likely Canada just because we're not too pleased with the way the US is polarizing, both domestically and internationally. And the modern social norm of being exceedingly politically correct means that you don't express an entirely truthful opinion for fear of creating a conflict. Rather than engaging in a fruitful, friendly debate I get the sense that you discuss your opinions with those that are of the same opinion, and you don't seek out conflicting views. Hence the polarization. The sensationalizing nature of the media also bugs me to no end. To sensationalize something you need to contrast the event versus the norm so the bigger the contrast the greater the sensational nature. To compete, other media need to beat the competitor's sensationalized story which either reinforces the angle of the original story or goes in the complete opposite direction. Again, polarization.

I don't know if Canada's media has the equivalent of Fox and others, but I don't think so. In any case we'll get the US feeds and can choose at will.

Sunday, June 10, 2007

China stock market - Fear or Flock

At this in time, global investing is not easy for the casual investor. The highly digestible "BRIC" strategy was a godsend for many who wanted managable risk, high returns and a dash of global exposure to offset a reliance with passe Fidelity Blue Chip America. Watch out though, as the "C" is about to lose it capitalization, in both grammatic and value terms. "BRIc" will be a less valuable strategy, in other words. The China stock exchanges are valued more than double their global counterparts, meaning that investors are forecasting that in the next 5 years or so, Chinese companies will double today's profit. I read that China shares are trading at a 46 P/E compared to about 20 in developed markest. This screams "internet 2,000 A.D." to me, with the admittable difference that China is actually making stuff, and the internet bubble really did just produce air.

Possible? Perhaps, but consider that the average, Chinese retail investor has likely been responsible for this valuation in the expectation that the economy will prosper for a long, long time. Once the first member of the herd departs, two more will join, then four, and before long expect chaos. Chinese investors are no different from naive and unexperienced investors anywhere in the world. They get hot tips from cab drivers and hair stylists and drive the market up. But ask them to fill in the blank for the simple question "A ____ flow statement describes operating, investing and financing activities" and I think you get a blank stare. That expressionless face scares me more than Hannibal Lecter's.

In good times, you rarely hear tough questions. Pre-bust Enron was an analyst darling. Post-bust, we hear all the right questions being asked. Times in China are so good, good, good that we're going to look dumb for not asking them. 50% of GDP going to capital investments, while developed markets spend 20-25%? Surely a lot of the cash is going into zero return projects like apartments, malls and roads that are underutilized. Banks are lending the money out with a wink and handshake instead of a positive review of a business plan. And until this year why haven't the stock markets grown at the rate of capital investment growth plus ROI? The cash is all going somewhere and the stock market smells green. I think the bubbling is not from a latent buildup of returns being unleashed in the market, but simply from exuberance. As the average person paid for the internet bubble, so the average investor will be paying for the China stock market blow up.

What I really don't know is what the knock on effect will be around the world. There's a subject for future blogs. Now go sell your BRIC.

Thursday, June 7, 2007

Odd sports in even odder places

I'm Canadian and grew up playing hockey. However, I live in Hong Kong and am surrounded by the remnants of British colonial influence, so when I mention that I play hockey I invariably qualify it as "ice hockey." Readers with experience in British or European-influenced countries will know that "hockey" is mainly "field hockey" outside of North America, Scandanavia and eastern Europe. It's actually pleasing to return to Canada and talk about hockey with the full understanding that the audience is visualizing Zambonis and faceoffs, not sunshine and curry.

I've come to realize that hometown sports are defining objects to many people, and no matter where they are located they will go to extremes to either participate or watch. So the Canadians seek out hockey games and gather for beer, coffee or both in hotels and bars around the world come June and the Stanley Cup finals. Americans congregate for the SuperBowl. Europeans pull out their national team jerseys and find their fellow countrymen during the major rugby and football championships. I was in Amsterdam two weeks ago during the Champions League final and ran into a British friend in town on business and away from his Bangkok home. I hadn't seen him in ages and we agreed to get together for the single evening we were both free. But...we had to find a bar with the Liverpool/AC Milan match. "Haven't seen you forever, would love to catch up, but I really need to watch this game, mate."

About 15 years ago some Canadians got together and launched a hockey league at Hong Kong's only rink at the time. Not only was it far away from downtown, but it was, get this, L-shaped. Not to worry--the water was frozen, the guy from Calgary had a couple of pucks and the folks were gladly shipping over the equipment that had been in their closet for 12 years. A new rink opened at the Dragon Center in a highly suspicious district called Sham Shui Po.
The rink was small, but decidedly O-shaped as a good slab of playing ice should be. One small distraction--The indoor roller coaster that whizzed kids past during games. You think I'm kidding? It's the prominent yellow track arcing above the goalie in the picture. A full time sports management company, Asiasports Ltd., evolved from aftergame discussions with the real enthusiasts with real money to put up. It was a labour love--During my MBA program we studied a business case on Asiasports and the class decided it was a bad idea. One thing they forgot was that businesses produce more than just financial returns. I had to explain that these guys just love hockey. The founder named his first son Cooper, and it wasn't until later that he confessed to his wife that it also happens to be his favourite brand of hockey equipment.


Hong Kong has five ice rinks, and unbelievably I need to count on my fingers to get to that number. It's not "the" ice rink we visit here in tropical Hong Kong, but "which" ice rink. Just tonight my wife and I took two of our boys to the latest rink at the Megabox, which is the first purpose-built hockey rink in town. We finally have a nicely shaped rink with the proper dimensions, smooth ice and all the trappings like red and green goal lights, curved glass walls around the corners that lets the puck whiz smoothly around, and the theme from Hockey Night in Canada blasting between AC/DC over the speakers. If it weren't for the new Japanese burger joint and nearby noodle shops I could be in Toronto.

There are hundreds of adult hockey players in Hong Kong, and the same number of youth players. Women, mainly Chinese, love the game even though they have to get dressed in a small, private closet and are probably tired of seeing half naked fat guys sitting around with steam rising off their backs after a game. And more people are joining up. The current rink is booked solid with hockey training and games, every night, seven days a week. Unlike previous rinks, the new ice is dedicated to hockey and hasn't gone through a "hockeyization" remodelling to take out handlebars around the rink and to install nets so that onlookers don't take a puck in the teeth.

One of the five rinks doesn't even allow hockey skates to be worn on the ice. For some reason the managers equate skates with fistfights and deadly slashing attacks by 100 kilo gorillas. Where I grew up, figure skates were considered, let's just say "unmanly" and when I've had no other option I reluctantly strap them the darn things on and wait for the inevitable face plant after toe points dig in.

In the old days an L-shaped, tiny rink was good enough for desperate hockey players. Today, we're not satisfied until the corner glass is rounded, the ice is like glass, the entire Highway to Hell CD is available on demand, and I'm not forced to drag myself around in figure skates that my mind tells me is equivalent to wearing a bridesmaid's dress.

Monday, June 4, 2007

The New York Times Crossword Puzzle

On an airplane last year I saw a documentary called "Wordplay" featuring Will Shortz, the editor of the New York Times Crossword. He's a big fish in a small pond, but it's a frothy, fascinating body of water. "Wordplay" documented the Annual Puzzle Tournament and all its associated drama. "Boring" you say? Not so! Will himself is the sole holder of a B.Sc. in Enigmology, a self-conceived degree concering enigmas or simply put "puzzles." The film profiled several top finalists from previous years and documented their days leading up to the event and then through the tournament's finale. It also features well known puzzle enthusiasts and we now know that Bill Clinton, Jon Stewart and The Dixie Chicks all reach for the NYT every day.

I've never been a big puzzle fan because they always seemed impossible ("Key of Beethoven's 'Fur Elise'") or too easy ("Meower") but I started doing the International Herald Tribune (not knowing it was the NYT) and USA Today. Intrigued I was, so I bought a one-year NYT online subscription and downloaded Across Lite 2.0 to do puzzles on my PC. Each person has their own way of doing the puzzle: Purists like the NYT newsprint copy, some print out the online version, others like me prefer to download the file to their PC, and many choose to compete publicly and finish the grid online in a "fastest" competition that tracks users over time.

I'm now hooked, and have come to understand the nuances of the NYT puzzle, the style of the various creators and the editing preferences of Will Shortz, who refines each puzzle to just the right level of difficulty, wit and cleverness. Monday is the easiest and I get through the grid completely in under 10 minutes. Occasionally I have a mental block on an answer that results in a Homer Simpson head slap, but that's not common until later in the week. Tuesday is somewhat harder than Monday, and again on Wednesday. Thursday, however, jumps significantly in difficulty and I often need to use the internet for answers that I just need to know, e.g. "Author/journalist Fallaci." Who? "ORIANA" if you are interested. Friday is very hard and I normally only finish about three-quarters even with the internet. And Saturday...well, Saturday is one of those grids that only the craftiest can consistently complete and if I fill in a quarter of the answers then I'm pleased.

Sunday is the real treat--It's "The Big Grid." An extra large puzzle presumably for brainy New Yorkers who laze about Manhattan sipping strong coffee on Sunday morning while effortlessly recalling operas, composers, literature and foreign languages. Or if you're like me you're beating your head on the monitor at home while the dog is harrassing you for a scratch because the kids are all off at Sunday school during my home alone time.

Today's Tuesday grid was unusually bothersome and I actually had to get some answers online. The tough ones follow, but I only had to look up the starred ones because they were connected and I just didn't know the answer. So when JATO and ERITU are joined by a "T" and you don't know that it's a "T", well you just have to use Google.

One-named singer for the 1960s Velvet Underground (NICO)
Categorical imperative philosopher (KANT)
War god on Olympus (ARES)
Skunk River city (AMES)
* Verdi aria (ERITU)
Bird in the "Arabian Nights" (ROC)
* Actor Gulagher (CLU)
Throat dangler (UVULA)
Secular (LAIC)
Soft drink since 1905 (RCCOLA)
* Mil. plane's boosed launch (JATO)
Actress Hagen (UTA)
"Mockingbird" singer Foxx, 1963 (INEZ)
Oklahoma native (OTO)

In addition to completing the grid, the real payoff is seeing some real cleverness that makes me laugh. For instance, Bill Clinton's self-crafted puzzle contains the clue "You're in this before you're out" and answer "UTERO." I also learn a lot of (possibly useless) knowledge that is often frequently reused. "Actor Morales?" Whoever "ESAI Morales" is, your vowels have been ploughed many times over. Chinese may be the most spoken language on Earth, but "LAO" and its useful vowels fit into many words. However, in the last few days we have seen "LOMEI" ("Food used with chopsticks") and "ENLAI" ("Zhou ...") so even our local language makes it in. Luckily my French is good enough for the frequent questions en francais ("These" to Emilie" (CES) or "One of the seasons in Cannes" (ETE)). I can handle the Italian clues (e.g. today's "Italian flowers" (FIORI)) but the Spanish and German clues are my weaknesses.

This kind of mind work keeps your brain excercised and I believe research shows that an active mind protects against diseases such as Alzheimer's. So shell out the $40 and prevent the onset of an addled brain--Too bad you can't claim it on your insurance as preventive medicine.

Digital diaries

I'm 42, and will turn 43 in about 6 weeks. From the 1980s when I was in university through the first few decades of my working life, I pushed back against paper organizers and diaries for some reason. I think it was something to do with wasteful paper, but I'm still not sure what event or series of experiences formed that behaviour. So I don't know why, but I've always had some aversion to wasteful consumption and have been waiting anxiously for this digital revolution.

Email was a great first step. I never liked the tedium of writing memos to someone around the corner in the office. When we moved to Hong Kong in 1991 I had been dialling up local PC billboards in Canada using X-Modem, then Y-Modem and for those of you who remember ... Z-Modem! Of course you couldn't download much, but it was fun leaving messages for the webmaster or whatever the term was back then, as the "web" hadn't been popularized. Then Compuserve and AOL became more and more prevalent and I got my first email account around 1992. Problem was, hardly anyone had email despite my frequent requests and lobbying. It slowly made its way into everyone's home and the question changed from "Do you have email?" to "What's your address?"

I'll save a blog for MS later; I think they're a great company that made North American companies very competitve, helped launch SMEs that continue to drive the economy, and still provides good value personal PC software despite the common rant about Big Brother. When Microsoft introduced Outlook with a Calendar, Contacts and Tasks, well that about solved my problem with paper diaries. The only problem was trying to connect to company email outside the office. Depending on how tough your IT guys are on security, you can do it easily or not. For me, it's not easy and I got sick of plugging in cables at hotels, playing with local providers, dialling up once again through fax machines because the PBX didn't connect to modems, and so on. So when the Blackberry ripened and dropped out of some engineer's brain, well it was yet another quantum leap forward in gettin' to your stuff quickly. Many rant against the intrusion of the Blackberry. Guys, let me tell you something: Turn the thing off if you like. It won't kill you. Otherwise, if you're like me and you don't like to just stare, bored, out the bus or taxi window, make use of your down time and keep yourself occupied.

Technology is getting better and more useful. I've been doing three things more and more: 1) Using Skype/VOIP to not only make cheap phone calls, but to stay in much better contact with people, particularly those I haven't seen for a long time; 2) Enjoying being able to use wireless anywhere in the house and other places like airports (even more so when I make a free Skype call at the same time); and 3) Editing digital video and doing things like uploading to YouTube. I spent the afternoon yesterday figuring out how to get an MPG onto my PC, splitting it up into segments and then adding titles. Back in early 2007 I formed a one-night band with my son and our single performance was on video and in need of making it up to YouTube for friends and family to see. I got the hang of it and did a decent job: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W7pS-I08cAA will take you to a playlist. I'm listening now and boy did we (I) push that first instrumental along! About 20% too quick, but it was the first time for most of us.

Right now I'm connected to our wifi network and blogging, doing some work and listening to our YouTube file that loaded when I copied the link. Not quite Eric Clapton Unplugged, but not bad for some amateurs. I'm listening to my nervous, prerecorded voice that I now know is "pitchy" or just plain "off key, dude" in IdolSpeak.

So technology is a great thing that you should adapt and put to the right amount of use in your own life. Don't ignore all the great tools these days otherwise you will simply get more disenchanted with the buildup of what you don't know. This is where grumpy old folks get their start--By ignoring what's going on around them to the point where they can't fit in, they don't understand what's going on and they simply revolt. Stay young and in touch by staying online.

Saturday, June 2, 2007

Hong Kong weather - How long will it last?



This picture was taken about a year ago when we took the sailboat out for a spin when Jeanne's brother Dean was here. You can see that it was fairly clear that day and is similar to our current weather. Today is a hot, breezy and fairly humid Sunday that ends a week which contained one of the longest stretches of blue sky in years. Correction: When the southern China factories shut down for their semi-annual holiday Hong Kong becomes remarkably blue-skyed in contradiction to the pundits who claim out pollution is primarily self generated.


The Hong Kong pollution has increased dramatically since we moved here in 1991. Blue skies and an endless horizon were the norm, and when we took the ferry from Central back to our previous island home in Discovery Bay it reinforced our choice of residence. These days it is more common for me to look out my office window and see nothing but haze one kilometer away on Victoria Harbour instead of the treed mountains that flank Kowloon five kilometers away and separate it from the New Territories.

Harrison was invited by his buddy Luke to spend the night at the Grand Hyatt in Wan Chai where Luke's father is the general manager. Turner is lunching with a friend and his family down in Stanley, but promised to return quickly to get ready for tomorrow's Spanish test. Mackenzie is a layabout today and is downstairs in pyjamas playing a game on the internet. Wireless connections make his life easier for all, and more worrisome specifically for us parents. The hidden Playboy under the mattress these days is nothing more than a digital cookie that may or may not have been wiped by the teenage PC user. Is there a way for the primary hub PC to track sites that wireless spoke PCs have accessed? If not, there's an idea for an aspiring parental entrepreneur.

I've just calculated that our rent will increase by fifty-six percent in August, so we're on the move, downsizing in space by about twenty percent and moving from a house and garden to a high rise apartment. Hong Kong's property is going through one of its normal cycles that will undoubtedly end in a crash in the next few years. Meanwhile we are one of the victims caught in the wake of the out of control ship.

On a good note, little Rhys is extremely mobile and the house is slowly being babyproofed. Our older CDs are for the fourth time are being put up high away from a young boy's grabs and casual flings over the shoulder. Early 1990s CD cases still bear the cracks from young Harrison's attacks.